Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -4000 NICH +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +20 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -14.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -14.5 (+5.5) | 139.2 (+32.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -13.1 (+6.9) | 135.5 (+36.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -14.2 (+5.8) | 134.4 (+37.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -13.5 (+6.5) | 138.5 (+33.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#104) | -4.4 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#133) | -2.65 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#118) | -4.54 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#66) | 0.401 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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