Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -102 ACU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -9.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -4.7 (-12.7) | 133.0 (+1.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -4.9 (-12.9) | 133.6 (+0.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -5.3 (-13.3) | 133.4 (+0.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -5.7 (-13.7) | 133.3 (+0.7) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-10 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#242) | -8.7 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#274) | -0.41 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#218) | -0.74 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#310) | 0.442 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 37.2% |
Game Analysis
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