Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -5000 STET +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +22 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -20.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -18.3 (+3.7) | 137.6 (-25.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -15.7 (+6.3) | 139.0 (-27.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -16.7 (+5.3) | 138.3 (-26.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -16.9 (+5.1) | 137.3 (-25.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#135) | -12.5 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#197) | -2.35 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#224) | -3.05 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#191) | 0.352 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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