Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -6500 SAC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +22 | 198 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -20.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (+36.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -21.4 (+0.6) | 152.5 (+45.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -16.4 (+5.6) | 148.8 (+49.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -17.9 (+4.1) | 149.0 (+49.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -18.6 (+3.4) | 151.9 (+46.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 83.6 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#73) | -6.6 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#53) | -1.19 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#57) | -2.03 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#28) | 0.467 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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