Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
Foster Pavilion · December 3, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread BAY -29.5 Away covered
O/U 158.5 Over
Money BAY -6500 / SAC +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total BAY win
Actual BAY +22 198 Won
Massey BAY -20.4 (+1.6)
Massey Totals 161.9 (+36.1)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML BAY -21.4 (+0.6) 152.5 (+45.5) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML BAY -16.4 (+5.6) 148.8 (+49.2) 89%
Baseline ML BAY -17.9 (+4.1) 149.0 (+49.0) 88%
Baseline Plus ML BAY -18.6 (+3.4) 151.9 (+46.1) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BAY SAC
Overall 17-17 10-21
Conference 6-12 6-12
Home 11-6 10-4
Away 3-7 0-16
Neutral 3-4 0-1
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.4 75.9
Avg Pts Against 76.9 83.6
Massey 8.4 (#73) -6.6 (#271)
Bradley-Terry 1.77 (#53) -1.19 (#276)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.75 (#57) -2.03 (#289)
RPI 0.623 (#28) 0.467 (#224)
Shooting & Four Factors BAY SAC
FG% 47.0% 37.0%
3PT% 36.1% 26.7%
REB / G 37.5 36.0
OREB / G 14.3 11.3
AST / TO 1.45 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.8% 41.4%
TOV% 15.0% 18.3%
ORB% 39.1% 28.5%
FT Rate 27.8% 29.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.5% 52.6%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 17.4%
DRB% 70.2% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 18.9% 23.3%

Game Analysis

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