Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -1800 VAL +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -11.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -12.5 (-9.5) | 143.5 (+3.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -8.3 (-5.3) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -8.4 (-5.4) | 140.4 (+6.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -9.1 (-6.1) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#137) | -3.9 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#261) | -0.95 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#254) | -1.90 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#279) | 0.425 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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