Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NIU -166 LIN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIN +35 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -9.9 (-44.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -4.5 (-39.5) | 144.8 (+18.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -5.6 (-40.6) | 144.8 (+18.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -5.8 (-40.8) | 144.9 (+18.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -5.8 (-40.8) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#230) | -8.4 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#240) | 0.09 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#262) | -0.02 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#274) | 0.496 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 24.6% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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