Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MD -4500 WAG +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +26 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MD -4.7 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -4.4 (+21.6) | 151.2 (+0.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MD -9.7 (+16.3) | 152.8 (-0.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MD -4.4 (+21.6) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -5.1 (+20.9) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#223) | -2.6 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#154) | -0.48 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#161) | -0.63 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#169) | 0.472 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 42.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 36.8% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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