Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +150 TA&M -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | TA&M -3.3 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -0.5 (-7.5) | 147.1 (+6.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -1.3 (-6.7) | 143.4 (+10.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -2.7 (-5.3) | 143.2 (+10.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -1.2 (-6.8) | 144.3 (+9.7) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 86.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#144) | 10.6 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#156) | 1.24 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#166) | 2.54 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#98) | 0.503 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 35.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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