Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +30 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -25.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -18.6 (+11.4) | 160.4 (-2.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -20.0 (+10.0) | 158.6 (-0.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -21.5 (+8.5) | 159.6 (-1.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -22.2 (+7.8) | 160.0 (-2.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2020 | PROV 79 – 67 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#110) | -15.8 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#153) | -4.39 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#137) | -6.77 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#114) | 0.309 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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