Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -800 ETSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +17 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -4.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.4 (+11.6) | 142.1 (+16.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.4 (+11.6) | 140.9 (+18.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -4.7 (+12.3) | 142.9 (+16.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -5.7 (+11.3) | 142.7 (+16.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#106) | 5.9 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#68) | 0.74 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#85) | 0.58 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#55) | 0.501 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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