Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -470 FLA +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -16.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -13.4 (-12.4) | 158.8 (-25.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -15.7 (-14.7) | 148.2 (-15.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -16.6 (-15.6) | 152.2 (-19.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -16.0 (-15.0) | 152.6 (-19.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 10-1 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 27.2 (#2) | 15.7 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.96 (#5) | 1.77 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.35 (#6) | 3.04 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#22) | 0.598 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 43.1 | 48.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.98 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 41.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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