Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | CSUN +165 TROY -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +9 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -3.6 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.8 (+13.8) | 151.8 (+27.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.3 (+11.3) | 149.7 (+29.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.3 (+11.3) | 151.2 (+27.8) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.5 (+12.5) | 152.9 (+26.1) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUN | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#284) | 4.2 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#167) | 2.50 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#185) | 3.53 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#236) | 0.660 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUN | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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