Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -650 MIA +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -7.7 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -0.6 (+13.4) | 153.6 (-3.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -2.0 (+16.0) | 150.3 (-0.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.6 (+15.6) | 152.9 (-2.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -2.6 (+16.6) | 155.6 (-5.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#56) | 15.9 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#115) | 1.40 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#103) | 1.80 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#59) | 0.500 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 56.9% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 53.7 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 21.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 2.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 62.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 46.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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