Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -4000 AKR +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +18 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -5.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | PUR -6.8 (+11.2) | 149.6 (+26.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -9.0 (+9.0) | 151.8 (+24.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -8.9 (+9.1) | 153.1 (+22.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-1 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 8-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#60) | 9.4 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#2) | 1.09 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.08 (#1) | 1.72 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#43) | 0.623 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.73 | 2.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 10.2% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.3% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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