Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NIA -240 DSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -23.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -9.5 (+1.5) | 129.4 (-4.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -10.6 (+0.4) | 131.9 (-6.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -14.3 (-3.3) | 132.6 (-7.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -12.3 (-1.3) | 130.8 (-5.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 2-12 |
| Home | 6-7 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-14 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#120) | -6.9 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#43) | -0.65 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#48) | -0.94 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#85) | 0.500 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 31.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 35.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 63.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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