Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UML -750 NHVN +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NHVN +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -9.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -3.8 (-9.8) | 133.8 (+6.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -5.7 (-11.7) | 129.2 (+10.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -3.3 (-9.3) | 131.4 (+8.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -21.0 (#354) | -16.8 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#227) | -2.53 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#244) | -3.46 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#120) | 0.542 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 21.3% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 21.2% |
| REB / G | 22.0 | 25.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.19 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 25.5% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 27.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 48.9% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 67.4% | 59.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 48.3% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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