Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | UCF +450 VAN -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +12 | 198 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -4.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+39.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -0.1 (-11.9) | 149.5 (+48.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.8 (-12.8) | 149.9 (+48.1) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#233) | 8.7 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#105) | 0.34 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#133) | 0.53 (#54) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 55.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 54.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 68.4% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 8.1% |
| ORB% | 47.1% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 39.3% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 35.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 37.5% |
Game Analysis
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