Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | GASO -240 UNCA +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +3 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -22.6 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -8.9 (-5.9) | 145.5 (+37.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -10.4 (-7.4) | 145.2 (+37.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#60) | 0.3 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#188) | -0.34 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#157) | -0.48 (#196) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 56.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.4% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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