Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NHVN +1200 PSU -3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NHVN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +44 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | NHVN -10.8 (-54.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -0.8 (-43.2) | 134.8 (-4.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NHVN -0.0 (-44.0) | 132.9 (-2.9) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NHVN | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#281) | -3.3 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#286) | 0.34 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#289) | 0.42 (#122) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NHVN | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 21.2% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.48 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 10.2% |
| ORB% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 10.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 11.4% |
Game Analysis
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