Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -36.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +41 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -27.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -16.2 (+24.8) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -21.4 (+19.6) | 140.7 (+8.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#58) | -4.4 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#27) | -0.34 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#26) | -0.51 (#222) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 28.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 42.3% | 12.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.4% | 62.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 59.1% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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