Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -195 ALA +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +7 | 199 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -23.1 (-30.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (+30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -11.5 (-18.5) | 155.8 (+43.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -15.1 (-22.1) | 153.3 (+45.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 18-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-1 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#39) | 1.4 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#49) | 0.08 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#42) | 0.08 (#146) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.5% | 53.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.3% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 43.2% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 36.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 83.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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