Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -5000 UAB +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +24 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -16.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | NCSU -7.1 (+16.9) | 152.9 (+11.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -9.7 (+14.3) | 149.4 (+14.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-9 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#14) | 11.0 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#79) | 0.34 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#52) | 0.54 (#50) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 47.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 72.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 9.5% |
| ORB% | 45.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 33.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 30.6% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 87.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.6% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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