Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -38.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +48 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -34.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -17.6 (+30.4) | 150.1 (+17.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -21.4 (+26.6) | 151.3 (+16.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 2-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 83.7 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#59) | -11.0 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#32) | -0.34 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#31) | -0.54 (#237) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 29.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 33.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 30.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 12.8% |
| FT Rate | 50.8% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 9.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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