Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -100000 GAST +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -23.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -16.1 (-6.1) | 141.2 (-3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -20.0 (-10.0) | 137.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#67) | -1.4 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#62) | -0.34 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#65) | -0.49 (#204) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.2% | 29.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.7% | 35.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 53.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.5% | 8.2% |
Game Analysis
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