Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | FUR -135 TROY +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +3 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -1.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.8 (-48.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -5.1 (+2.1) | 157.8 (-32.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.8 (+2.8) | 160.1 (-35.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#272) | 8.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#264) | 2.01 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#271) | 2.81 (#13) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 52.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 46.2% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 61.9% |
| TOV% | 30.1% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 44.1% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 39.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 64.5% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 8.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 56.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.6% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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