Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Timmons Arena · November 8, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread FUR -2.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Money FUR -135 / TROY +115
Model Predictions
Spread Total FUR win
Actual TROY +3 125 Lost
Massey FUR -1.3 (-4.3)
Massey Totals 173.8 (-48.8)
Bradley-Terry 39%
Weighted B-T 27%
Baseline Tuned ML TROY -5.1 (+2.1) 157.8 (-32.8) 28%
Baseline ML TROY -5.8 (+2.8) 160.1 (-35.1) 29%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FUR TROY
Overall 22-13 22-12
Conference 10-8 12-6
Home 11-5 10-3
Away 7-5 9-7
Neutral 4-3 3-2
Last 5 0-1 1-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.9 77.3
Avg Pts Against 72.5 74.5
Massey -8.7 (#272) 8.0 (#26)
Bradley-Terry -1.06 (#264) 2.01 (#13)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.62 (#271) 2.81 (#13)
RPI
Shooting & Four Factors FUR TROY
FG% 43.9% 52.4%
3PT% 26.9% 46.2%
REB / G 41.0 34.0
OREB / G 15.0 6.0
AST / TO 0.59 1.67
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 61.9%
TOV% 30.1% 14.2%
ORB% 44.1% 20.7%
FT Rate 24.6% 39.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 64.5% 45.6%
Opp TOV% 8.2% 16.2%
DRB% 74.3% 56.0%
Opp FT Rate 11.6% 31.6%

Game Analysis

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