Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -550 WIN +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +6 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -17.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+44.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -9.1 (-3.1) | 138.3 (+47.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -10.9 (-4.9) | 135.0 (+51.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-3 |
| Home | 17-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#103) | 2.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#70) | 1.06 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#81) | 1.47 (#29) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 40.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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