Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -33.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +65 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -23.0 (+42.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -14.2 (+50.8) | 140.6 (-17.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -16.8 (+48.2) | 140.3 (-17.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.4 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#13) | 5.3 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#52) | -0.25 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#30) | -0.25 (#139) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.3% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.17 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 7.8% | 27.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 10.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 39.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 82.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.8% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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