Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -185 UCF +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +6 | 202 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -3.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (+47.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -1.9 (-7.9) | 156.5 (+45.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -2.6 (-8.6) | 157.2 (+44.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.1 (-9.1) | 147.0 (+55.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.2 (-7.2) | 147.1 (+54.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#54) | 7.9 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#74) | 1.62 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#66) | 1.81 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#127) | 0.541 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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