Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | USC +190 VILL -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -1.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.9 (-0.1) | 145.6 (-26.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -0.6 (-0.4) | 142.5 (-23.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -1.7 (+0.7) | 140.4 (-21.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.2 (-0.8) | 143.2 (-24.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#60) | 11.4 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#69) | 1.26 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#59) | 1.83 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#101) | 0.517 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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