Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -135 UTC +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +1 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -4.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -3.9 (-4.9) | 150.9 (+18.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -4.2 (-5.2) | 146.6 (+22.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -4.1 (-5.1) | 144.6 (+24.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -3.0 (-4.0) | 144.9 (+24.1) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 14-3 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#67) | 3.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#43) | 1.36 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#55) | 1.48 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#18) | 0.579 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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