Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -240 ORST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -0.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -1.2 (-0.2) | 153.5 (-2.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -0.2 (+0.8) | 156.1 (-5.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.5 (-0.5) | 154.8 (-3.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -0.4 (+0.6) | 156.3 (-5.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#75) | 7.1 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#67) | 0.77 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#70) | 1.15 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#107) | 0.517 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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