Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -600 DEP +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -8.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -9.2 (+12.8) | 139.2 (+4.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -10.4 (+11.6) | 139.3 (+4.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -11.7 (+10.3) | 137.6 (+6.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -10.7 (+11.3) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#48) | 3.8 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#61) | 0.19 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#61) | 0.37 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#102) | 0.452 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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