I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Bren Events Center · March 27, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UCI -3.5 Home covered
O/U 156.5 Over
Money UCI -165 / UAB +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCI win
Actual UCI +4 158 Won
Massey UCI -7.2 (-3.2)
Massey Totals 154.7 (+3.3)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 86%
Baseline ML UCI -6.9 (-2.9) 153.8 (+4.2) 72%
Baseline Plus ML UCI -6.5 (-2.5) 155.2 (+2.8) 69%
Efficiency Plus ML UCI -6.7 (-2.7) 152.8 (+5.2) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML UCI -6.3 (-2.3) 151.4 (+6.6) 77%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCI UAB
Overall 32-7 24-13
Conference 17-3 13-5
Home 13-2 14-4
Away 14-3 7-6
Neutral 5-2 3-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.8 81.4
Avg Pts Against 67.4 76.6
Massey 8.6 (#67) 4.6 (#99)
Bradley-Terry 2.13 (#46) 0.98 (#92)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.20 (#57) 1.07 (#97)
RPI 0.599 (#21) 0.540 (#94)
Shooting & Four Factors UCI UAB
FG% 45.4% 45.3%
3PT% 35.4% 34.4%
REB / G 38.0 39.7
OREB / G 9.3 14.6
AST / TO 1.23 1.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 50.4%
TOV% 18.1% 13.8%
ORB% 28.4% 38.3%
FT Rate 28.9% 24.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.1% 51.3%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 15.3%
DRB% 73.3% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 16.0% 20.6%

Game Analysis

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