Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -165 UAB +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -7.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -6.9 (-2.9) | 153.8 (+4.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -6.5 (-2.5) | 155.2 (+2.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -6.7 (-2.7) | 152.8 (+5.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -6.3 (-2.3) | 151.4 (+6.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 14-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#67) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#46) | 0.98 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#57) | 1.07 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#21) | 0.540 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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