Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -225 KENT +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -3.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -3.7 (+6.3) | 136.4 (-2.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -3.5 (+6.5) | 138.5 (-4.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -4.0 (+6.0) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -4.0 (+6.0) | 136.1 (-2.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#114) | 3.0 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#87) | 0.91 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#93) | 0.78 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#95) | 0.560 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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