Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | CLE -215 FGCU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -0.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -1.0 (+6.0) | 133.4 (+3.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -1.3 (+5.7) | 133.9 (+3.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -1.6 (+5.4) | 132.0 (+5.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -1.4 (+5.6) | 132.9 (+4.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#159) | -1.0 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#144) | -0.17 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#138) | -0.36 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.504 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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