Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -240 BRAD +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +8 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -4.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -4.4 (-12.4) | 133.0 (+9.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -4.7 (-12.7) | 132.9 (+9.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -4.2 (-12.2) | 132.8 (+9.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -4.0 (-12.0) | 130.7 (+11.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 18-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#82) | 6.0 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#61) | 1.69 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#60) | 1.56 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#33) | 0.566 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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