Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UTC +115 DAY -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +15 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -1.3 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.3 (+14.7) | 155.4 (+3.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -0.4 (+14.6) | 153.7 (+5.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.1 (+16.1) | 150.9 (+8.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -0.7 (+14.3) | 152.7 (+6.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 12-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#121) | 7.5 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#90) | 1.46 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#95) | 1.81 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#62) | 0.566 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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