The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
McCamish Pavilion · March 18, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread GT -7.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money GT -275 / JXST +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total GT win
Actual JXST +17 145 Lost
Massey GT -6.0 (-23.0)
Massey Totals 141.5 (+3.5)
Bradley-Terry 62%
Weighted B-T 65%
Baseline ML GT -6.1 (-23.1) 140.9 (+4.1) 66%
Baseline Plus ML GT -5.8 (-22.8) 142.0 (+3.0) 68%
Efficiency Plus ML GT -5.3 (-22.3) 140.3 (+4.7) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML GT -5.6 (-22.6) 140.0 (+5.0) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GT JXST
Overall 17-17 23-13
Conference 10-10 12-6
Home 14-6 12-2
Away 2-9 8-8
Neutral 1-2 3-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 73.1 70.9
Avg Pts Against 72.7 69.3
Massey 4.9 (#97) 2.1 (#129)
Bradley-Terry 0.79 (#107) 0.87 (#99)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.88 (#107) 0.92 (#106)
RPI 0.491 (#187) 0.547 (#84)
Shooting & Four Factors GT JXST
FG% 44.2% 43.4%
3PT% 34.1% 33.5%
REB / G 37.3 37.1
OREB / G 11.0 10.7
AST / TO 1.20 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 49.6%
TOV% 17.4% 15.7%
ORB% 30.5% 30.9%
FT Rate 21.4% 24.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.8% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 13.3%
DRB% 71.4% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 19.5%

Game Analysis

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