Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -200 KENT +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENT +19 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -5.4 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -5.4 (-24.4) | 131.2 (-0.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -5.1 (-24.1) | 133.2 (-2.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -4.9 (-23.9) | 132.3 (-1.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -4.4 (-23.4) | 131.2 (-0.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | 1.9 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#96) | 0.59 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#91) | 0.41 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#77) | 0.547 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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