Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -270 TLSA +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +6 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -3.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -4.9 (+1.1) | 153.9 (+24.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.3 (+2.7) | 156.8 (+21.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -4.0 (+2.0) | 157.4 (+20.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -2.4 (+3.6) | 155.2 (+22.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#36) | 10.7 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#42) | 1.80 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#38) | 2.12 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#37) | 0.579 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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