Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -218 RUTG +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -5.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -6.3 (+6.7) | 146.4 (+4.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -5.7 (+7.3) | 143.6 (+7.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -5.0 (+8.0) | 146.0 (+5.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -3.4 (+9.6) | 146.8 (+4.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#76) | 2.7 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#77) | 0.83 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#71) | 0.94 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#123) | 0.498 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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