Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | COLO +340 OU -440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +4 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -4.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -3.5 (-0.5) | 156.5 (+19.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -4.5 (+0.5) | 158.4 (+17.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -3.0 (-1.0) | 159.0 (+17.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -4.8 (+0.8) | 161.8 (+14.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#82) | 12.5 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#68) | 1.97 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#59) | 2.63 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#94) | 0.524 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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