Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -410 NEV +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -8.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -8.3 (-2.3) | 149.3 (-5.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -7.3 (-1.3) | 151.3 (-7.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -7.8 (-1.8) | 152.8 (-8.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -8.3 (-2.3) | 152.0 (-8.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#41) | 8.5 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#43) | 1.52 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#42) | 1.82 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#40) | 0.572 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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