Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -340 ILST +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +6 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -4.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -6.3 (-12.3) | 137.1 (-21.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -6.7 (-12.7) | 134.1 (-18.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -7.0 (-13.0) | 135.0 (-19.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.5 (-12.5) | 137.8 (-21.8) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#71) | 6.7 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#55) | 0.74 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#57) | 0.81 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#37) | 0.541 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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