Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW +142 DAY -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +19 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -1.2 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.5 (-19.5) | 135.6 (+5.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -0.3 (-19.3) | 134.8 (+6.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.9 (-19.9) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.4 (-19.4) | 136.7 (+4.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 12-2 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#108) | 8.1 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#79) | 1.72 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#98) | 2.12 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#53) | 0.574 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.