Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -250 JOES +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -9.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -6.4 (-7.4) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -8.3 (-9.3) | 141.9 (+9.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -9.0 (-10.0) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -9.3 (-10.3) | 144.5 (+6.5) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#66) | 2.8 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#58) | 1.11 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#63) | 1.22 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#71) | 0.548 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.