Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -305 GW +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +25 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -6.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -9.0 (+16.0) | 155.6 (-8.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -7.6 (+17.4) | 155.7 (-8.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -7.9 (+17.1) | 158.6 (-11.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -8.5 (+16.5) | 159.0 (-12.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#49) | 8.5 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#55) | 0.47 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#55) | 0.71 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#53) | 0.536 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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