Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -600 NAVY +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -12.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -13.1 (-3.1) | 142.2 (+11.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -11.5 (-1.5) | 143.5 (+10.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -11.9 (-1.9) | 143.9 (+10.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -11.0 (-1.0) | 143.4 (+10.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 13-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#59) | 0.9 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#69) | 0.14 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#68) | -0.03 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#80) | 0.519 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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