Betting Lines
| Spread | LEH -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LEH -166 PV +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +12 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | LEH -2.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEH -1.9 (-13.9) | 145.3 (-23.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEH -2.1 (-14.1) | 141.4 (-19.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEH -2.4 (-14.4) | 141.2 (-19.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEH -1.7 (-13.7) | 143.3 (-21.3) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEH | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#282) | -10.1 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#265) | -1.24 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#292) | -1.52 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#227) | 0.459 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEH | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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