Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UCI +100 UNLV -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -3.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -4.9 (-7.9) | 153.5 (-6.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -4.3 (-7.3) | 148.6 (-1.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -4.4 (-7.4) | 151.7 (-4.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -4.5 (-7.5) | 152.0 (-5.0) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#112) | 3.8 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#109) | 0.77 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#113) | 0.89 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#74) | 0.523 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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